From the film "The Light Thief"

At the end of July 2011, ‘The Light Thief’ opened in London after several months of wrangling since its selection successes at the Cannes, Locarno, Berlin and the Toronto Film Festivals in 2010. The film is by award-winning Kyrgyz director Aktan Arym Kubat. This may be the first time you have heard of Kyrgyzstan or that it had a film industry at all – your mistake!

The plot follows ‘Mr Light’, an affable electrician in a remote village in the mountains of Kyrgyzstan. He aims to bring cheap wind power to his rural community but change comes when local magnate Bezkat offers to sell the locals’ land to a group of Chinese investors. Juxtaposing tradition and development, the film is a poetic and visually ravishing allegory of life in post-Soviet central Asia. This precis doesn’t really convey the unusual and un-westernised mood of the film, which will make demands of an audience not cogniscent with goats, yurts and the Kyrgyz taste in traditional headgear (the ‘Kalpak’). Whilst the geography and culture are radically different from the UK, the issues of introducing new technologies to communities and administrations are decidedly familiar for those involved in introducing renewable energy initiatives.

For more information on wind power in Kyrgyzstan click here…

The report has been compiled by etc4CA – a commercial venture started in 2010 to equip people in Central Asia to do business better. Renewable energy provision is one of etc4CA’s projects to establish local catalysts for business. We believe that energy is essential for a community’s economic viability and this project has been initiated in the hope that it goes some way towards addressing the complex energy issues of the region.
This report results from reconnaissance performed in May 2009 and 2011 across a range of locations in Western and Central Kyrgyzstan. Its purpose is to identify opportunities for wind power as an alternative source of renewable energy to address the energy issues affecting communities that live in these regions. Due to the geographic size of the region and the time available to make the assessment, some assumptions have been made to exclude areas where there is little likelihood of wind or areas where hydro-electric generation is the obvious ongoing solution.
The significant population centres of Kyrgyzstan are well provided for through the ongoing investment in hydro-electric power generation. Indeed, Kyrgyzstan is already reliant on renewable energy to the extent that 91% of its energy comes from this source. (“Development of the Renewable Energy Sector in the Kyrgyz Republic” K. Djusupov, Deputy Minister, March 2010, Beijing)
etc4CA fully recognises and commends the ongoing endeavours of the Kyrgyz government and other agencies in this success.

Executive Summary

There are two clear imperatives for Kyrgyzstan to consider wind power as a source of renewable energy. With the continued escalation of water management challenges of Central Asia, it would be expedient for Kyrgyzstan to investigate more options to diversify its energy generation sources. Also, glacial shrinkage across the Tien Shan has now been demonstrated over a protracted period and there is a strategic requirement to understand the potential for alternative energy sources if glacial run-off were to reduce, as is likely, in the longer term. (Sources: “Kyrgyzstan: Melting Glaciers Threaten Central Asia’s Ecological and Energy Future” Published on EurasiaNet by K. Kumkova on October 18, 2010. Permafrost warming in the Tien Shan mountains, Central Asia. Global and Planetary Change, 56 (3–4), 311–327By Marchenko, S.S., Gorbunov A.P. and Romanovsky, V.E. (2007))

This report reveals that Kyrgyzstan has only one area for the use of wind power as a strategic source of renewable energy. Specifically, the Balikchi area has the potential to become an energy exporter with the development of significant wind farms. Other tactical opportunities appear to exist in the communities of the Alay valley (Sary Tash, Sary Mogul, etc.).
In most of Kyrgyzstan a grid network exists to supply communities with electricity derived from hydro-electric generation. It is recommended that a pilot project to implement wind turbines in the Balikchi area is commenced, initially feeding the generated electricity into a local community initiative (i.e. not into the grid). This pilot will demonstrate the availability of wind as an energy source and will also evaluate the performance of wind turbine technologies when exposed to the local climatic conditions.
This report recommends that a Project Initiation Document (PID) be developed to identify an approach to validating wind power potential in the area around Balikchi. It is expected that there will be significant donor and investment interest expressed in support of such a programme if Kyrgyz governmental agencies are willing to actively support such an investment and share in the solutions.
This PID will be published before the end of 2011 and it is expected that the project should commence with a pilot installation in spring 2013.

Scope

Kyrgyzstan is 94% mountainous and the country’s average elevation is 2750m. Over 80,000Km2 is higher than 3000m, of which 75% is currently under permanent snow and glaciers.
The Tien Shan mountain range is the dominant feature that extends from the Chinese border in the south to the Kazakhstan border in the north. To the west of the country, the Fergana range and the Pamir Alay ranges surround the fertile Fergana valley. Lake Issyk-Kol forms a deep indentation into the mountains in the North-East. The lake is almost 700m deep and never freezes due to its salinity. The main rivers of Kyrgyzstan are the Naryn, flowing almost the full length of the country into the Syr-Darya in the Fergana valley, and the Chuy that flow east to west along the Kazakhstan border.
For the purposes of this report, ‘renewable energy provision’ has been defined in just three categories of solution: solar; hydro-electric; and, wind.
The scope of this report does not extend to consider issues regarding the implications of its findings such as solution technologies, sourcing, installation, configuration and servicing/maintenance. These subjects will be covered in a Project Initiation Document that is referred to later in the conclusions of this report.

Method

3Tier wind maps have been referenced to initially identify those areas in Kyrgyzstan that might have sufficient wind potential (i.e. greater than 3-4m/s average wind speeds). Due to the geographic breadth of Kyrgyzstan and the limited duration of the reconnaissance, evaluations have, in some cases, relied upon anecdotal evidence, combined with experiential information. As part of this reconnaissance, monitoring equipment (anemometer and compass) will be left with a number of individuals to collect data over the next year. Historic meteorological information has also been obtained and is documented in Appendix A.
The reconnaissance was performed over two three-week periods in May 2009 and 2011. The following locations were visited over this time:

Pamir Alay

- Sary Tash and Gulcha

Fergana Valley& Fergana Range

- Osh, Jalal-Abad, Aslanbob, Kara-Kol, Kyrgyz Alatau Range, Toktogul, Talas and Suusamyr

Bishkek region

- Kara Balta, Bishkek, Tokmok and Kemin

Issyk-Kol region

- Balikchi, Cholpon-Ata and Kochkor

Central Tien Shan Range

- Naryn and Song-Kol

More than 99% of the population of the Kyrgyzstan live in or near the locations covered by the reconnaissance.
Geographic gaps in this reconnaissance are considerable. However, the gaps are, in general, very sparsely populated and extremely mountainous. Notable exceptions are the southern slopes of the Fergana valley (Batran, Katran and Isfana) which will hopefully be reconnoitred in October 2011.

Findings

A number of homesteads have already individually invested in solar panels, almost always of a size less than 1m2 and generally 0.25m2. These solutions were all providing The majority of renewable energy solutions in Kyrgyzstan have been focussed upon hydro-electricity generation for both on and off-grid electricity. Installed hydropower capacity is approximately 2,950 MW (80% of overall installed generating capacity). However, the estimated available hydropower resource of Kyrgyzstan is 18,500 MW.
An overview of the trans-boundary water management situation across the Central Asian region shows that tensions over water will inevitably grow and the situation is now progressing towards to political deadlock. Hence, it is possible to hypothesise that unpleasant outcomes of the situation might occur if further hydropower capacity is realised in the upstream riparian states of either Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan. The following hydro-electricity generating plants have been identified:

• Toktogul HPP (1200 MW)
• Kurpsay HPP (800 MW)
• Tashkumyr HPP (450 MW)
• Shamaldysai HPP (240 MW)
• Uchkurgan HPP (180 MW)
• Atbashy HPP (40 MW)
• 10+ other small HPPs (40 MW)

Hydropower in the Fergana Range and valley makes wind/solar renewable energy sources comparatively less cost effective alternatives.

Wind energy as a consistent source of electricity is an excellent prospect in many areas of Kyrgyzstan. However, most of these areas are remote, very mountainous, high altitude and only have nomadic populations (largely due to the harsh climatic conditions).

The 3Tier wind map for Kyrgyzstan can be studied in comparison to the topography and it can be seen that there are actually very few areas where wind is found in accessible locations where a turbine could be installed. Four such areas were identified:
• Balikchi
• Song-Kul
• Torugart
• Alay Valley

Regarding empirical data for wind power, there are few reliable and detailed sources. When reviewing the 3Tier wind charts for these four areas, it can be seen that the broad valley floors still experience average wind speeds of 3 to 5m/s and, on the higher altitude valley sides the wind averages can be considerably greater.

Balikchi (Lat 42.28, Lon 76.11, Elev. 1670m)

Anecdotally, most people in Kyrgyzstan will reference the wind in Balikchi and have reported wind as a consistent and strong force in the winter months, generally in a south-easterly (off-lake) or north-westerly (on-lake) direction being funnelled up or down the Boomskoe Gorge. The city has a few small and locally built turbines installed in private gardens (see page header), evidence that the community recognises the potential of this energy source. Away from Balikchi and around Issyk-kul the wind dissipates.
Meteorological records for the Balikchi area have been sourced from the soviet era. No evidence remains concerning the precise locations of these surveys which might have affected the results
In April, the average daily wind speed is 4.2m/s. Winds are either westerly or, more predominantly, easterly.

In July, the average daily wind speed is 2.7m/s. Winds are either easterly or westerly in direction.

In October, the average daily wind speed is 3.6m/s. And the predominance of the wind is easterly.

In January, the average daily wind speed is 2.8m/s. The wind is predominantly easterly throughout the area.

Song-Kul area (Lat 41.48, Lon 75.12, Elev. 3036m)

Song-Kul is inaccessible to vehicles from October through to early May and is unpopulated for this period due to the extreme cold. The NASA data above may not represent the conditions at the altitude (~3000m). There is little value in investigating the area further although it is likely that there are parts of the valley that have regular strong winds.

Torugart Valley (Lat 40.55, Lon 75.14 Elev. 2903m)

The Torugart valley is a main thoroughfare for traffic to and from China (over the Torugart pass) and there is considerable construction underway to build a better road infrastructure. However, this terrain is over 2500m and is largely unpopulated (particularly in the winter months). The NASA data above may not fully represent the conditions at the altitude (~3000m). There is also little value in investigating the area further although it is likely that there are parts of the valley that have regular strong winds.

Alay Valley (Lat 39.43 Lon 73.14 Elev. 3176m)

The Alay Valley is a broad east-west valley isolated from the rest of Kyrgyzstan to the north by the Alay Pamir Range. To the south lies the massive Eastern Pamir range (including Pik Lenin at 7134m). The reliability of electricity in this valley is often compromised due to the fragility of the grid network as it traverses the Alay Pamir from the north. As a result, there are many cases of energy poverty in the villages of this valley and there is a need for local energy solutions. The NASA data above may not represent the conditions at the altitude (~3000m). It is unlikely that hydro-electric generation is a solution as the water in this valley freezes in winter. A pilot similar to that currently being run in the Eastern Pamirs would be a likely approach for this area. The objective of a pilot should be to find the locations in the valley that receive the best wind over the year.

Meteorological records for the Alay Valley have been sourced from the soviet era. No evidence remains concerning the precise locations of these surveys which might have affected the results. Sary Tash lies slightly protected under the lee of the Alay Range which might account for discrepancies between the 3Tier, NASA and Soviet era results.

In April, daily average wind speeds are recorded as 2.4m/s and are directionally more varied.

In July, temperatures are warmer (+14C) on the western parts of the valley floor and the average daily wind speed for that month is 2.8m/s. Winds in the Eastern Pamirs are low during the summer months so this recording should not be considered representative and the NASA data is likely to be more reliable.

In October, daily average wind speeds are recorded as 2.7m/s. The wind is predominantly south to south-easterly and is channelled over the passes and down the valleys between the high peaks of the Eastern Pamirs Range.

In January, temperatures are below freezing (~minus15C) along the valley floor and snow is persistent the winter months of the year. The average daily wind speed is 1.7m/s, however, January is generally a quiet month for wind in the Eastern Pamirs and this will have an impact on the average wind speed in the Alay Valley recorded.

Conclusion

Hydropower must remain as the strategic focus for Kyrgyzstan electricity generation, at least for the next twenty years whilst the situation regarding glacial melting in the Tien Shan becomes clearer. However, this report concludes that there is a significant wind resource in the Balikchi area that should be investigated further. As there are no HPP initiatives in the Issyk-kol area, and the cost of maintaining a grid network up to the lake is significant, it would also seem a potentially cost effective means of increasing Kyrgyzstan’s installed electricity generating capacity. Whilst there is much less evidence of energy poverty in the majority of Kyrgyzstan, there is a huge opportunity to diffuse the current political tensions in Central Asia by finding and exploiting other alternative energy solutions rather than risking a strategy of continued expansion of hydropower.

This reconnaissance has revealed:
1. A latent, although not empirically proven, capacity in the Balikchi area for wind energy over most of the year and, particularly, during the winter months.
2. A history of wind energy being successfully utilised, even with old technologies.
3. A possible source of wind power renewable energy in the Alay Valley, which could potential address energy poverty issues of that region.

All of the above points to wind power as an alternative energy solution. However, due to the variability of the data that exists, this reconnaissance also prompts the need for further investigation of wind energy potential and more trials working with the Kyrgyz authorities and local communities.

It is recommended that the proposed trials above should be conducted in a scientific, methodical and project managed manner. These proposed trials will be the subject of a Project Initiation Document (PID) that will be published by etc4CA at the end of 2011. This PID will also make recommendations regarding the solution technologies, sourcing, installation approach, configuration options and servicing/maintenance arrangements. It is believed that installation of pilot turbines could potentially commence in spring 2013, assuming that funding applications are successful.

Appendix A

– Kyrgyzstan wind mapping from the Soviet era
The following has been sourced from records of former Soviet era meteorological mapping of Kyrgyzstan. Unfortunately the reference source for this information is unavailable.

Alichur is located on the Pamir Highway, 4 hours / 207 km by road from Khorog and 2 hours / 104 km from Murghab at an altitude of 3863m. It has a population of approximately 1500 people (150 families). It is on the broad and open plateau between the northern (highest peak 5880m) and southern Alichur mountain ranges (highest peak 5500m) which both run east to west. There is limited vegetation (mostly below 50cm high) and the building structures in the village are all below 4m in height (i.e. single storey).

Alichur does not have a local grid and is hundred/s of km from the nearest network grid (Khorog/Murghab). There is no water suitable for a hydro electric installation (insufficient drop and freezing temperatures in winter). There are some solar panels placed on the rooves of houses. Petrol generators are the only other possible source of electricity but the cost of petrol is high and rising (US$1.5 per litre).

Most wind occurs from March to May and September to November and the wind is significantly less in the mid-summer and mid-winter. The predominant wind direction in Alichur is westerly to south-westerly but the wind also sometimes comes from the south or the north-west.

The turbine installations were carried out by the villagers themselves over two days. One of the turbines is located by the school building and provides electricity to power the headmaster’s computer for a few hours a day. The second turbine is located next to some houses to support one of the poorest families in the village. The masts are supported by four guy ropes attached to footings (bent at an angle at the base) which are sunk in 50-80cm of concrete.

The wind turbines continue to work well and generate electricity and there have been no breakdowns or need for replacement parts over the past 18 months of usage.

There was enormous pride from those we met at the school and members of the VO in having the turbines and ownership was clearly very high which helps to ensure continued operation and maintenance of the turbines.

The pilot can be considered a huge success in terms of proving that wind is a viable alternative and renewable energy source for Alichur.

Opportunities identified for future installations:

• It has been recognised that the wind turbines are located too close to the nearby buildings which is approximately halving the potential power that could be generated. The locations were chosen so that only a short transmission cable was needed and to avoid any interference with the area where the children play or animals roam, hence minimising the risk of damage. If the turbines were located further from the buildings, then wind turbulence would be minimised and performance improved. It is not recommended that the turbines should be re-located on the roof.
• The 300W power output is now considered insufficient as it can only power one computer and they are unable to run the printer at the same time. There are three other computers in the school which requires a diesel generator to enable their use.
• The VO in Alichur was concerned that the mast moved at high wind speed. However, this is probably not a major concern and can be solved by more guy ropes or the tightening of the fastenings. The VO asked about alternative tower masts which might be more stable. However, thicker masts would slow the turbine as the blades pass through the wind shadow of the mast. This also increases the risk of the blade shearing.

We wish to recognise the contributions of all of those involved in this innovative and important pilot. In particular, we recognise MSDSP for their willingness to support and finance the initiative and the VO who are both bold and active in achieving this success.

As the main route for the Silk Road highway for many centuries, the Central Asia region extends from Eastern Turkey through to Western China, including the Himalaya and high Tibetan plateau as well as the Sothern Steppe former Soviet Union republics. Within this diverse geography, Central Asians experience some extreme climatic conditions, with daytime temperatures ranging from +40C in summer to less than -40C in winter. In the rural and more remote parts of Central Asia, very few villages have a reliable access to clean and sustainable energy.

For many centuries in Central Asia, a traditional home heating method known as a ‘Sandali’ or ‘Korsi’ has provided families with a warm place to retreat into when the temperatures dropped below freezing. The homes and buildings in this region have limited insulation built within their construction and interior room temperatures can often approach the freezing conditions of the outside during prolonged spells of bad weather.

Traditional Sandali space heating methods involved placing a bio-fuel or charcoal stove, or bowl of embers, into a recess in the floor and positioning a low table over the pit. Optionally a chimney vent for smoke would be provided. Over the table were laid blankets, made from sheep wool, and traditional rugs that extended out to cover the pit sides. What was created was an enclosed and insulated area of warmth that the family would crawl into, leaving just their heads exposed. Sleeping and eating could then go on whilst the lower body remains in the relative warmth.

Figure 1: Central Asian Sandali (circa 1880)

A similar space heating method, known as a Kotatsu, has been used in Japan for centuries, where homes and walls have less insulation than their western counterparts. Technologies and designs in Japan have revolutionised the traditional Kotatsu. Here, the charcoal heater has been replaced by an electric heater that is actually built into the table underneath the table top. Blankets are similarly laid over the construct and provide the heated enclave. Kotatsu are commonplace in Japan and are readily available through purchase on the internet.

Figure 2: Picture of Japanese Kotatsu (circa 1800)

Traditional Sandali had their disadvantages. Fire from the charcoal/bio-fuel heater was a constant problem and fumes also presented significant health risks. However, extreme low temperatures outside of the Sandali must have been considered an even greater threat to survival. Furthermore, traditional Sandali were space heaters and not storage heaters. Despite the blanket insulation, the heat source had to be continuously maintained to ensure that temperatures were kept above freezing.

The increased availability of fossil fuels in Central Asia over this last century have enabled many homes to replace their Sandali with larger stoves and Sandali are now only found in the most rural villages where the provision of coal is difficult due to the remoteness of the location. However, with the price of coal fuel rapidly increasing over the last decade, people are once again beginning to face winters without sufficient heating. For some it has been recognised that the time for the re-invention of the Sandali could be nigh.

Figure 3: Modern day Kotatsu

In Central Asia, electrical energy is generally unreliable and in rural districts, grid supplies may be intermittent or may not be available at all. In these cases, off-grid renewable energy sources have, for some decades, been utilised and these solutions both respect the environment whilst combating climate change. For off-grid electricity solutions, renewable energy sources either charge to a battery bank or feed to a ‘dump’ when the battery bank is fully charged. Utilising battery power for electrical heating purposes is not an efficient use of the battery based supply – the battery drains rapidly and the heating element consumes a high proportion of the wattage being supplied. Battery energy is much more effectively used to supply lighting and enabling other domestic electrical appliances (e.g. computer, radio, television, etc.).  The ‘dump’ also provides an opportunity for storage and space heating and in cold climates this can enable a modified Sandali design as a significant improvement upon the traditional space heating stove.

The modified Sandali construct follows that of a western storage heater but in a much simpler design. The solution has an insulated brick construct, packed around a series of heating elements that readily accept the ‘dump’ electricity. The bricks are required to have sufficient heat conductance to both retain and radiate heat. Materials for these bricks are limited to those available locally. However, the best sources are those materials currently used for lining of clay ovens that are used for the baking of bread. Bread baking ovens are found in every village in the region as bread is a staple foodstuff.

During the night, the power can be switched from battery to dump supply and heat the Sandali heating elements at the time when air temperatures are dropping to their lowest. Air, by a process of convection, passes through the construct and warms the surrounding area under the table. The result provides safe heating from renewable energy sources compared to the traditional Sandali format.

Wind-, hydro- or solar-power are all potential alternative renewable sources that can provide battery and dump electrical charge. However, with freezing winter temperatures and associated cloud cover, wind is the more likely alternative in the critical months when temperatures plunge below zero. Micro-wind turbine technologies are increasing in efficiency and with installation costs continuing to reduce, wind power is rapidly becoming the preferred option for renewable energy supply in these off-grid, remote and economically-challenged regions.

Figure 4: Painting of family using a Korsi (Iranian source)

Projects introducing this solution will help to inform and empower local communities and their practices regarding household energy. A pilot project in Tajikistan is currently underway to adopt this model and then evaluate its impact in those homes and communities affected. 2Kw wind turbines are being introduced into four prospective village locations and the modified Sandali will be installed to provide for ‘dump’ storage heating, enabling the utilisation of all the available wind energy. Wind power / modern Sandali solutions could potentially appear in many more rural and remote homes and villages in the not too distant future.

The report has been compiled by etc4CA – a commercial venture started in 2010 to equip people in Central Asia to do business better. Renewable energy provision is one of etc4CA’s projects to establish catalysts for business in the region. We believe that energy is essential for a community’s economic viability and this project has been identified in the hope that it goes some way towards addressing energy poverty in the region.

This report results from reconnaissance performed in September 2010 across a range of locations in both the Western and Eastern Pamir Mountains. Its purpose is to identify opportunities to address energy poverty that is currently affecting some of the communities that live in this region. Due to the geographic dispersion of communities in this region and the time available to make the assessment, some assumptions have been made and some areas of the range have been omitted.

Issues of energy poverty in the Pamir Mountains are very apparent. However, it is also recognised that the significant population centres of the Western Pamirs are well provided for through the ongoing investment in hydro-electric power generation. Indeed, Khorog may well be the best energy-provided centre in the whole of Tajikistan due to the Pamir-1 plant. etc4CA fully recognises the ongoing endeavours of the Tajik government, Aga Khan Foundation and other agencies in these successes.

Executive Summary

This report reveals that the Pamirs must be considered as two quite distinct regions (West and East) which have differing demands and potential.

In the Western Pamirs, hydro-electricity and solar power are the right approaches to sustainable energy solutions. Communities on the whole are well served by the endeavours of local, regional and national government organisations and energy poverty can only be classified as serious in the remotest parts and the upper valleys. Projects to address these needs should primarily be seeking tactical implementation of up to 400Kw hydro-electric turbine installations. More research should focus upon these upper valley communities and evaluation of the viability of either existing/prospective installations or grid extensions.

In the Eastern Pamirs, communities are affected by energy poverty throughout the year which becomes critical and life threatening in the winter months. A combination of hydro and solar in the warmer months and wind and solar in the winter months is the correct approach. However, with limited knowledge of wind power and the criticality of energy poverty in the winter, it is essential to begin a strategic programme for further evaluation of wind power as a sustainable source of energy to address the needs of these communities. Without such a programme it is inevitable that there will be further loss of life as fossil fuel prices increase beyond the purchasing power of most families/households.

This report recommends that a Project Initiation Document (PID) be developed to identify an approach to resolving the energy poverty issues that have been identified, particularly those in the Eastern Pamirs. With the 2010 publication of the UN report on global energy poverty, there is now a clear mandate for change. It is expected that there will be donor and investment interest expressed in support of such a programme and, assuming that communities are willing to input investment and share in the solutions, a successful conclusion may be reached before too many others suffer from the hardship of survival in these remote locations.

This PID will be published before the end of 2010 and it is expected that the project should commence in Spring 2011.

Scope

The Pamir Mountains are a range of diverse topography that constitutes the north western end of the Himalaya. In simple terms, their northern edge is marked by the Kyrgyzstan border with Tajikistan. To the east they extend into China to the Tarim Basin (Taklimakan Desert). To the south they are distinguished from the Hindu Kush range of the Himalaya by the Wakhan fault-line. To the west they are delineated by the Panj valley which also forms the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Since the Pamir extend in some part beyond the borders of Tajikistan and access to these regions is difficult, for the purpose of this research only communities within Tajikistan have been assessed.

The range can be broadly split into two parts: the Western Pamirs and the Eastern Pamirs.

The Western Pamirs are a rugged landscape sculptured by fast flowing rivers (causing rapid erosion) with some classical glacial features around the higher mountain tops. Mountains tend to be predominantly pyramidal, indicating glacial erosion and, indeed, several large glaciers still exist in this part of the Pamirs (for example, the Fedchenko glacier, which is the longest glacier in the world outside of the polar regions). Mountains in the Western Pamirs have been most recently uplifted through plate tectonic activity between the Indian subcontinent plate and the Eurasian plate. Therefore, they have the highest peaks (a number over 7000m) and have igneous/metamorphic and sedimentary geological origin. With a prevailing westerly wind direction the Western Pamirs induce some precipitation that, along with glacial melt waters provides for a range of flora in the valley bottoms where soils of relatively poor quality have accumulated.

The Eastern Pamirs are distinct, and have a plateau-like landscape with very broad flat valleys and rounded peaks with much more limited rock exposure, hidden by screes and glacial deposits. The lowest parts of the Eastern Pamirs are above 3000m but the peaks, with the exception of Peak Lenin, are all below 7000m. Precipitation is largely through snowfall and winter temperatures are usually lower than -30^oC. The combination of these effects is that flora is exceedingly sparse and the Eastern Pamirs suffer desert conditions throughout the year.

For the purposes of this report, ‘renewable energy provision’ has been defined in just three categories of solution: solar; hydro-electric; and, wind.

The scope of this report does not extend to consider issues regarding the implications of its findings such as solution technologies, sourcing, installation, configuration and servicing/maintenance. These subjects are covered in a Project Initiation Document that is referred to later in the conclusions of this report.

Method

Due to the geographic breadth of the Pamirs region and the limited duration of the reconnaissance, evaluations have initially relied upon anecdotal evidence, combined with experiential information. As part of this reconnaissance, monitoring equipment (anemometer and compass) has been left with a number of individuals in the Pamirs to collect data over the next 6 months. Historic meteorological information from the weather stations at Karakul and Murghab is also being sought. Finally, the 3Tier wind maps have been referenced to reconfirm any of the above findings.

The reconnaissance was performed over two three-week periods in April/May 2009 and September 2010. The following locations were visited over this time:

Western Pamirs

• Kala-i-Khumb
• Panj Valley
• Vanj Valley to Poi-Masar
• Bartang Valley to Yemts
• Geisev valley
• Khorog area
• Gunt valley
• Wakhan Valley from Ishkashim to Khargush

Eastern Pamirs

• Zorkul valley
• Bulunkul area
• Alichur area
• Murghab area
• Karakul area
• Rangkul area
• Tokhtamish area
• Jarty Gumbez area

Gaps in this reconnaissance are few but notable exceptions are the Shaymak area, the Shakhdara Valley and the upper Bartang valley. In all these cases, access to these locations was constrained by recent melt water flooding causing road or bridge collapse. Anecdotally, it was recorded that, in the case of Shaymak conditions are virtually the same as for Tokhtamish. There was also evidence that the Bartang and Shakhdara valleys can be considered similar to the Wakhan, Vanj and Gunt valleys.

More than 99% of the population of the Pamirs live in or near the above locations.

Findings – The Western Pamirs

The Western Pamirs have warm summers with a significant number of sunshine hours. Spring, autumn and winter seasons are all much more cloudy (evidenced by the intermittent flight service into Khorog). Winters are cold (+5^oC to -10^oC), however, the river waters generally do not freeze. Snow is common on the valley floors and, obviously, it increases in its depth and duration at higher altitudes in the upper valleys.

A number of homesteads have already individually invested in solar panels, almost always of a size less than 1m² and generally 0.25m². These solutions were all providing <100w of off-grid supply for domestic consumption.

The majority of renewable energy solutions in the Western Pamirs have been focussed upon hydro-electricity generation for both on and off-grid electricity. The largest hydro-electric generation plant of this region is the recently upgraded Pamir One (28Mw, just east of Khorog) and all the valleys investigated in the Western Pamirs had at least one hydro-electric plant, although of varying dates of installation and size. Stations in Vanj, Ryn and Roshan (Panj Valley) were all sizable and meeting the needs of the communities in the lower parts of the valleys. However, in all cases the further up the valley that we reconnoitred, the weaker became the electricity supply. In all cases, local hydro-electricity generators had been installed further up the valleys (off-grid) but these were found to be undersized to meet the current needs of those communities supplied. For example, at Langar and Poi-Masar (in both cases these villages are at the end of their respective valleys) there were electricity outages and only very low wattage was available when service was resumed. There is a planned upgrade to hydro services in Langar although no similar upgrade is currently envisaged for Poi-Masar. In Poi-Masar, the re-sizing of the existing turbine to match the existing generator capacity (400Kw) should address the needs of the village and provide sufficient energy to satisfy other parts of the valley.

Wind energy as a consistent source of electricity has very limited viability in the Western Pamirs. Winds are light during the summer and autumn months and only gusty. In winter and spring the winds are more moderate, however, the vegetation in the valley floors creates turbulence and the steep valley sides also cause variation in direction and strength. There are very few potential sites for a good and consistent source of wind energy and this solution is unlikely to be viable. 

Findings – The Eastern Pamirs

The Eastern Pamirs are very different in terms of their climatic conditions, geographic topography and distribution of communities. This region is: the size of Switzerland; on average over 3000m above sea level; and, has a population of less than 17,000 people, many adopting a nomadic herding lifestyle during the summer months. For these people, the energy challenges are centred around the winter months when temperatures regularly drops below -40^oC and over the winter of 2008 fell to -68^oC in one village. To overcome these winter conditions most communities rely heavily on coal fires. Coal is currently $200 per tonne and approximately 4 tonnes is required to heat a house through the winter.  Coal prices increase every year and with annual average wages in the region of $300, coal will not address energy poverty in the region. During winter, lives are lost due to the energy poverty issues in this region.

The temperature conditions during the winter months result in all the lakes and rivers freezing and, consequently, hydro-electric power generation is not feasible in these months. However, generation in the summer months is possible and the aging Murghab hydro-electric power station still provides some electricity at this time. It is understood that there is a proposal to build a new hydro-electric plant in Murghab, replacing the existing facility. It is still unclear how such a major investment will satisfy the local communities in the critical winter months although this will obviously meet requirements at other times of the year when the melt waters flow.

Many homes and even yurts have a small solar panel and this provides a limited home supply of electricity in the spring, summer and autumn when the sun shines. However, once again in winter this provision is constrained by fewer sun hours and fallen snow.

For the majority of communities the only viable supply of sustainable energy is from the wind and, with the general topography and altitude of the region, this is in regular abundance.  Towns and communities are mostly located in wide valleys with much softer local terrain features. As a result, wind is moderate to strong for the majority of months and, in particular, is strongest in the winter season.

Evidence of the presence and power of the wind comes from many sources.

Regarding empirical data, there are few reliable or detailed sources. When reviewing the 3Tier wind charts for Tajikistan and the Eastern Pamir, it can be seen that the broad valley floors still experience average wind speeds of 3 to 5m/s and, at higher altitude such as Karakul, the wind averages are considerably greater.

Further evidence for the presence of wind as a sustainable energy solution is provided by the historic usage of wind turbines in this region. During the Soviet era, turbines were installed in Karakul, Jarty Gumbez, Gorbunov, Shorbulak and Khargush. All still exist and are in various states of repair. Although these turbines are antiquated compared to modern design standards, they are still able to produce effective electrical energy, even if the outputs are relatively inefficient.

In the last two years a new initiative to trial wind energy generation has been implemented in the village of Alichur in the Eastern Pamirs. Along with the assistance of the local community, MSDSP has successfully installed two 300w turbines in the village – one in the local school and another in a homestead. The turbines have been located close to the respective buildings causing some loss of efficiency due to wind turbulence. The current installed configuration only allows for the charging of a 12v (100Ah) battery and has no ‘dump’ provision for when the battery is fully charged. The battery energy is being used for lighting and a short wave radio. In the case of the school, it is also powering a computer. By the autumn of 2010, both turbines were still successfully creating a full charge for their respective batteries. Recognising the importance of this trial, these turbines are to be monitored over the next 6 winter months to review how they deal with the local winter temperatures and conditions.

Anecdotally, communities in all of the Eastern Pamirs have reported wind as a consistent and strong force in the winter months, generally in a westerly direction. Finally, wind erosion is a feature of many of the vegetation, rock and boulder forms in this region, adding to all of the evidence presented above.

Conclusion

For the Western Pamirs the current investment in hydro-electric generation should continue and is essential for both on and off-grid communities. There are still opportunities for micro hydro generation in the upper valleys where communities are more remote and grid extension is not viable. Poi Masar is a potential target location for an initiative of this kind where the existing installation is not scaled to meet the community’s needs.

Regarding the longer term view on the use of hydro-electricity generation, it is important to recognise two key points:

• most river and lake water is provided by the melting of snow from the glaciers in the higher altitudes; and,
• glaciers are receding at a significant rate (“The debris-covered glacier tongue retreated by more than 1 km since 1933 and lowered by about 50 m since 1980.” – source: UNEP).

For these reasons, it would be valuable to understand fully the opportunities for alternative sources and solar energy seems the logical alternative if global temperatures continue to rise over the next 50 years.

In the Eastern Pamirs the current situation is very different. Communities are much more adversely impacted by energy poverty due to the cost of fossil energy sources and the harshness of the climactic conditions.

This reconnaissance in the Eastern Pamirs has revealed:

1.       Energy poverty in communities at all times of the year, but particularly during the winter months

2.       A latent, although not empirically proven, capacity for wind energy over most of the year and, particularly, during the winter months.

3.       Apparent success to date of the recent wind energy generation trial performed in Alichur

4.       A history of wind energy being successfully utilised, even with old technologies

All of the above points to wind power as the right alternative energy solution for the Eastern Pamirs but also prompts the need for further investigation of wind energy potential and trials in other communities.

There are four potential locations for such trials:

• Murghab – this is the regional centre and, consequently has the highest population and demand for electricity.
• Karakul – this town has the most severe weather conditions of any of the towns in the region (with the possible exception of Bulunkul) and trialling a turbine here would reveal the extent of challenges of those conditions to the technology installed.
• Rangkul – the breadth of the Rangkul valley should provide for good wind conditions without turbulence from any direction.
• Tokhtamish – a trial presence here demonstrates a willingness for this project to reach remote communities and support the traditional nomadic herders.

Other communities such as Shaymak, Kona-Kurghan, Bulunkul appear to provide duplicate circumstances to those that might be assessed in the locations above and, therefore, these locations should be considered for subsequent phases.

It is recommended that the proposed trials above are conducted in a methodical and project managed manner. These proposed trials are therefore the subject of a Project Initiation Document (PID) that will be published separately by the end of 2010. This PID should also make recommendations regarding the solution technologies, sourcing, installation approach, configuration options and servicing/maintenance arrangements.